What are the 2026 New York Jets? The Floor and Ceiling

What's it like being a New York Jets' fan?  My go to comparison is always, "it's like sitting at an airport and waiting for a cruise ship to show up." Why do I say that?  Because I know it (a playoff appearance [let alone a Super Bowl win]) will not come to fruition.  However I still watch and allow this team to continuously raise my blood pressure on a weekly basis because, somewhere deep down, I hope I will be proven wrong.  

Being a kid in the late '90s and watching Gang Green were some great memories.  I worshipped guys like Wayne Chrebet and Curtis Martin.  I still remember to this day, being 8-years-old in the nosebleeds with my dad at Giants Stadium, watching Richie Anderson catch screen pass from Chad Pennington and taking it 56-yards for a touchdown against the Indianapolis Colts of Wild Card Week 2002.  Well now I am 32-years-old with a little one of my own on the way (who I will not be passing on this suffering to, sorry Dad) and though I love those Jet teams for the great memories, I also am a bit annoyed that when looking at the whole picture of this team's history that I would learn about in the years that followed, those late '90s early 2000s Jet teams gave me the false impression that they were always that good.

Not only was that playoff game against Indy the last time the Jets even hosted a playoff game, but other than a quick blip of relevancy from 2009-2010 (thank you Rex Ryan), this franchise has caused me nothing but anguish from the time Mark Sanchez ran into Brandon Moore's ass on Thanksgiving to Kenbrell Thompkins dropping what would have been a walk in touchdown to send us to the playoffs for the first time since the 2010-11 season.  Oh, by the way, more miserable moments came far and in between because that drop from Thompkins rang in the new year in 2016, and that aforementioned playoff drought?  Yeah, still on going.  

We are now in the year of our lord 2026.  The Jets are in year 15 of their playoff drought and are staring year 16 in the face if we're looking at just how bad it was last season.  Fans are asking, or at the very least I am asking, what is this year's team?  How high is their ceiling and how low is their floor?  

At the time of this blog's posting, we are a little more than 24 hours away from the Jets week one matchup against the Tennessee Titans in Nashville.  The Titans are being led by Gang Green's previous coach, Robert Saleh.  His replacement, Aaron Glenn, has not faired much better as last year not only did the Jets achieve a measly three wins last season (still might not even be in the top 5 worst Jet teams of all-time), and the defense failed to record an interception.  The only team in NFL history to "achieve" such a feat.  

General Manager's kitchen

So the Jets had a lot of work to do this offseason as usual, and their head coach is on the hot seat, also not uncommon.  To general manager Darren Mougey's credit, he did make a lot of moves this offseason that make sense on paper if we are putting it lightly.  I would go as far as to say he did cook. 

Defensive Additions

Mougey traded for and extended veteran safety Minkah Fitzpatrick.  I would certainly hope they would do a move to strengthen the secondary considering the stellar performance I mentioned the last paragraph.  Mougey also addressed that area in the draft when he picked up D'Angelo Ponds from Indiana 50th overall and fresh off of a National Championship season where he defended 10 passes, and recorded two interceptions, one for a pick six.  Only 5-9 and 182 pounds, Ponds is known for his heart and effort, and described himself as "an aggressive, scrappy corner." been compared to his new head coach, as a player, thankfully.  However, of course, he's doubtful to play this week with a calf injury.  

Another move on defense was bringing back Demario Davis after he'd been away for nine seasons.  I would expect him to play a leadership role.  But perhaps the move that can make the biggest impact was addressing the pass rush by drafting edge rusher David Bailey second overall out of Texas Tech.  Bailey, a 6-4 251 pound behemoth, recorded 29 sacks over four years, splitting his college career with Stanford and Texas Tech.  With the Cardinal, Bailey recorded 14.5 sacks over three seasons.  As a Raider, Bailey matched that in one campaign, which tied him for the lead in the FBS.  His 19.5 tackles for losses were second most.

The Jets sent their previous edge rusher, Jermaine Johnson to Tennessee in exchange for nose tackle T'Vondre Sweat, a very solid run defender and one hell of a return man on fumble recoveries.  Bailey fills in that hole left from Johnson and when/if Bailey finds his game in the NFL, I love the though of him and Will McDonald IV tormenting quarterbacks on opposite sides of the defensive line.  Here comes that stupid hope of mine thinking "maybe we can get a new Sack Exchange!"  We have a small sample size with Bailey so far in the NFL with 20 snaps this pre season where he recorded a sack, and three quarterback pressures which included an 11-loss

Bye Bye Fields

That's the defensive side of the ball, on offense the Jets trimmed some fat by trading Justin Fields to the Kansas City Chiefs.  Fields, who was drafted nine picks after Zach Wilson in 2021 and on his third team, threw for 1,259 yards putting up seven touchdowns and an interception while running 383 yards and four tuddies in nine games.  The former Chicago Bear and Pittsburgh Steeler could not establish any consistency and was only really able to do damage by running out of the pocket.  That style might work in college but not at the NFL where teams are much better at containing a mobile quarterback.  At the NFL level, you can only survive not being a dual-threat quarterback if you have the arm talent to make up for lack of footwork, not the other way around.  

You brought WHO back?!

So who is our savior?  Who is going to be the guy who leads the Jets to the promise land?  Geno Smith!  That's right he's back and when the Jets traded for him, you can click this link for my reaction! 

The former Jets 39th overall pick in 2013 has returned after stints with the New York Giants, Los Angeles Chargers, Seattle Seahawks, and Las Vegas Raiders.  In four seasons with Gang Green, Smith's record was 12-18 putting up 5,962 yards with 28 touchdowns, 36 interceptions, and a 57.9 completion percentage.  Most notable accomplishment?  Getting punched by IK Enemkpali, leaving the door open for Ryan Fitzpatrick to come in and tease Jets fans they were going to the playoffs before laying an egg week 17 in Orchard Park.  So I think back to his touchdown to interception ratio and immediately get PTSD.  

To be fair to Smith though, he did begin to turn it all around in Seattle.  Smith won the 2022 Comeback Player of the Year Award when he put up 4,282 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, a 69.8 completion percentage and limiting the interceptions to just 11.  In 2024, Smith put up 4,320 yards with 21 touchdowns, a 70.4 completion percentage, and 15 interceptions.  Things were looking up. However Smith was then dealt to the Raiders and looked closer pre-Seattle Geno. Only putting up 3,025 yards with 19 touchdowns, a 67.4 completion percentage, and 17 interceptions.  

Maybe the change of scenery hurt Smith, but at the same time, the Raiders hired Pete "I'm not going to give the ball to the best running back in the league at the one-yard line in the Super Bowl" Carroll.  The Raiders Black Hole nickname was appropriate as they had tied the Jets with the worst record in football, but sucked just a little bit more so they could draft Fernando Mendoza first overall ahead of Gang Green while the Seahawks replaced Smith with Sam Darnold, the man we drafted then ran out of town to finally find himself in the Pacific Northwest and become a ghostbuster against the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl in Santa Clara this past February.  How fitting that Smith, the man Darnold replaced, ended up back with the Jets via trade to further rub salt into that wound.  

New offensive weapons

Well I went on and on about Geno Smith and how he's been a journey man with blips of success, mostly coming from one place. I have been critical of that addition for too long.  The rest of the offensive additions came primarily through the draft.  Ponds was not the only Hoosier the Jets picked up as they also picked up Omar Cooper Jr. with the 30th overall pick, whose 13 touchdowns in 2025 tied him for 3rd overall in the FBS.  

Coach Glenn named Smith the starting quarterback, but someone who did inject the Jets with some hopium was Cade Klubnik, picked 110th overall out of Clemson.  The former Tiger completed 21 of 34 pass attempts during the preseason.  However he had no passing touchdowns and threw one interception.  Certainly one can see he's got some good assets to his game, but let's hold on saying he's the future just yet.  

The best move the Jets made this offseason though on the offensive side of the ball was their 16th overall pick in the draft Kenyon Sadiq.  The 6-3, 241 pound tight end out of Oregon has a nickname to him, "Sadiq the Freak."  His athleticism was put on full display as a Duck with 51 catches for 560 yards receiving (Oregon Record), and eight touchdowns (1st in the FBS for tight ends).  The last time the Jets consistently threw to the tight end on a regular basis was Dustin Keller.  Not a coincidence that, that was around the last time the Jets made the playoffs.  Mason Taylor is certainly a solid tight end in his own right, could he and Sadiq perhaps make the Jets offense dangerous with a two tight end set?  Time will tell.  Do make note though that he had hernia surgery and missed this preseason.  

New Coordinators

Coach Glenn is obviously on the hot seat, so desperate times came for desperate measures.  Obviously he needed some changes to To the coaching staff.  Gang Green brought in Brian Duker as defensive coordinator.  He has been a coach on various teams, but this is his first defensive coordinator position.  Duker recently served as the passing game coordinator for the Miami Dolphins, and has a history with Aaron Glenn going back to both their times with the Detroit Lions.  Glenn being a defensive minded head coach is probably still going to be the one's calling the plays, Duker just knows what he wants based on their history, and I'm sure is familiar with Minkah Fitzpatrick who played in South Beach during Duker's time there.  

On the offensive side of the ball, Gang Green brings in Frank Reich as the offensive coordinator.  Like Glenn, Reich is a former Jet.  Unfortunately, Reich was a Jet during 1996, the infamous Rich Kotite year (as was Glenn).  But that's not what we're here to talk about.  Let's look at his coaching resume. 

Tying this back to Darnold, we can thank Darnold for beating the Patriots this past Super Bowl (no team has lost more Super Bowls than the Patriots [pathetic]), the same way we can thank Reich for his role with the Philadelphia Eagles as their offensive coordinator when the Birds beat the Pats and Tom Brady with a backup quarterback in Minnesota on that February night in 2017.  A little asterisk though as head coach Doug Pederson still called the plays. 

As head coach in Indianapolis, Reich lead the Colts to two playoff appearances before being canned in 2022 after going 3-5-1 and being beaten by the Patriots 26-3 (the same Patriots that lost the Super Bowl more than any other team in NFL history).  This was followed up by an extremely short tenure with the Carolina Panthers who sent him packing after going 1-10 to start the season. 

Now, after a stint at Stanford as an interim head coach, Reich is back in the NFL with the Jets as an offensive coordinator and perhaps like some coaches, that might be his ceiling.  Some guys just make it as coordinators but do not necessarily have what it takes to be the man leading the show.  Reich might just be one of those guy based on his previous success in Philadelphia, and failures in Indianapolis and Charlotte.  Glenn is currently trying to avoid being one of those guys.  Reich is back in the offensive coordinator role, the position he held with that Super Bowl winning team in Philly, key difference now however, is that he is going to be the one calling the plays being under the wing of a defensive minded head coach.  

So, what's the floor and what's the ceiling?

I think looking at this roster, the Jets obviously improved.  It was kind of hard not too considering how horrendous they were last year.  I was sad to see guys like Johnson and Sauce Gardner get moved, but at the same time I am so glad to see the penalty machine Michael Clemons out of here (watch the Buffalo Bills actually find a way to limit his roughing the passer habit).  So where does this team stack up?  

At the running back position they still have the two headed monster in Breece Hall and Braelon Allen.  Hall can make guys miss with his elusiveness and speed while Allen can knock them on their asses with his size and strength.  Smith has a great weapon in Garrett Wilson who has succeeded in spite of the quarterback play he's had to put up with so far in his career.  On the opposite sideline, Adonai Mitchell is more of a mystery box, but on a good team, his role would be as a number two receiver.  Cooper Jr. perhaps may serve as a slot receiver at this moment in time.  

The Jets lineman and linebackers certainly have some depth to them.  With Davis back, I expect him to be a leader for guys like Jamien Sherwood.  If Bailey and McDonald play to their potential they can make the lives of offensive lineman on opposite sides hell.  Also factor in the addition of Sweat, and Gang Green is stronger add stopping those rushes up the middle.  

While Fitzpatrick certainly helps the secondary, I am still not impressed with the other options at corner and the other safety position.  It will probably take some time for them to get that first interception in God knows how long (please work, reverse jynx).  Maybe some of the veteran leadership from Fitzpatrick will be good for Ponds (when he's healthy) and will raise the game for guys like Brandon Stephens, and Qwan'tez Stiggers.  

Do I even mention special teams?  The Jets led Nick Folk walk and as it stands, have Blake Grupe as their kicker on the depth chart.  This comes after they cut Cade York after his struggles.  Punting?  If the Jets are, well...the Jets, then I'd expect Austin McNamara to practically perfect his game out there.  

All these things to factor in, I think it ultimately comes down to the guy I ranted about earlier in this blog, Geno Smith.  It's all going to come down to how he plays.  Are we getting the Geno that got sent packing from New York the first time and got him traded back here after failing in Las Vegas or are we going to get the guy that was the comeback player of the year?  If it is the former, are the Jets going to get three wins or less again or will the talent in guys like Hall, Wilson, and Sadiq (I hope) bail him out to the point where the Jets finish around a .500 record?  Which we will complain about because we were not terrible enough to get savior quarterback, again.  

In that paragraph lies my answer to the question.  I'd say the Jets floor is three wins or less, while their ceiling is about seven or eight wins.  Even if Gang Green gets the redemption arc Geno, this defense still has too many holes (particularly in the secondary) to put them back into playoff contention.

I think I can confidently say that they are a better team than the Dolphins this time around.  Hit the panic button if the Fins finish with a better record than Gang Green, but they are still ways away from catching the Bills and the (six time Super Bowl loser) Patriots.  So expect to bite the bullet again this year as that playoff drought becomes old enough to drive a car. 

Do you root for a full on tank?  I don't know if I would go that far.  Glenn certainly is not going to go for it and neither is Smith as he enters the twilight of his career.  They are fighting for their jobs. 

Whether you're in the camp of tank this season for Arch Manning or try to establish a winning culture, there is definitely one thing you can root for.  You can root for the Colts to have a terrible season since the Jets have their first round pick this year from the Sauce trade.  So you will either be rooting for the Colts to be bottom feeders and for the Jets to actually play meaningful games, or you're going to hope that the Jets and Colts somehow both play so bad that Gang Green lands the first and second overall pick and that leads to Mougey drafting our savior.  I really don't fault any of you who might be in either camp of tank or compete, but definitely hope Indy is a disaster this season. 

Apologies to NTS's resident Colts fan, Tommy Joe.

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